Analisis dan Implementasi Forecasting Persiapan Armada (Least Square dan Exponential Smoothing)
Keywords:
forecasting; fleet management; least square; exponential smoothing; operational planning.Abstract
This study aims to analyze and implement forecasting methods in fleet preparation planning using the Least Square and Exponential Smoothing approaches. Inaccurate forecasting in fleet management can result in imbalances between fleet availability and operational demands, leading to service delays and increased operational costs. Therefore, accurate forecasting methods based on historical data are essential to support effective operational planning. This research employed a quantitative approach by collecting historical fleet usage data, analyzing operational requirements, applying the Least Square and Exponential Smoothing methods, and evaluating forecasting accuracy through comparative error analysis. The forecasting system was implemented to assist management in optimizing fleet preparation planning. The findings indicate that both methods contribute to improved estimation accuracy, enabling better alignment between fleet supply and operational needs. The implementation of forecasting techniques reduces the risk of fleet shortages or surpluses and enhances strategic decision-making in operational management. Overall, the forecasting system improves fleet utilization efficiency and supports more effective and data-driven fleet preparation planning
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